As 2023 approaches, a screener was run to identify stocks with a solid history of delivering consistent returns. Tata Group's retailer Trent is the only counter that has given at least 5% return in each of the last 10 years. When narrowing down the filter to look for stocks that have given at least 20% return in each of the last 5 years, 12 counters were found.
1. Varun Beverages:
PepsiCo bottler Varun Beverages has given at least 20% return in each of the calendar years since 2017. The multibagger stock was listed in November 2016. CLSA has upgraded the stock to buy and raised the target price from Rs 1,070 to Rs 1,419 to reflect faster inorganic growth.
2. Trent:
Trent has more than doubled in 2023, a structural story on the growing organized apparel market in India. However, expensive valuations keep many investors on the sidelines.
3. Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company:
The NBFC has been among the consistent winners in the large-cap space in the last 5 years. The company has been giving positive returns in 9 out of the last 10 years.
4. Tube Investments of India:
Tube Investment of India, a flagship company of the Murugappa group, has given at least a 25% annual return since 2018. The company is one of the leading product manufacturers for major industries such as auto, rail, construction, mining, etc.
5. Authum Investment & Infrastructure:
Shares of Authum Investment have grown around 260% so far in the calendar year 2023. In the last 5 years, the stock has given multibagger returns 4 times.
6. Esab India:
Welding equipment company Esab India has also been giving consistent double-digit returns since 2017.
7. Religare Enterprises:
Religare Enterprises has been a consistent compounder in the last 5 years.
8. Jyoti Resins & Adhesives:
Smallcap Jyoti Resins is up only about 23% in 2023 but in the preceding four years the counter has given multibagger returns annually.
9. Praveg Ltd:
Praveg Ltd, which runs luxury resorts, has given an impressive 144% return in 2023.
10. Hardwyn India:
Shares of multibagger Hardwyn India, which makes architectural hardware and glass fittings, continued its winning run in 2023 after being a five-bagger in 2022.
11. Gujarat Themis Biosyn:
Gujarat Themis Biosyn has given negative returns only twice and at least 20% return in all the last 10 years.
12. Refex Industries:
Shares of Refex Industries, which is in the business of refrigerant gases in air conditioning equipment, have more than doubled in 2023.
What should investors do?
As conventional wisdom suggests, relying solely on past performance to predict future outcomes can be unpredictable. However, delving into historical trends often serves as a useful tool in identifying potential frontrunners.
Following an impressive surge in the broader market, analysts are asserting that large-cap stocks present a more attractive proposition in terms of risk-adjusted returns compared to mid/small caps. This preference is primarily driven by the anticipation of heightened earnings growth coupled with relatively favorable valuations.
HDFC Securities, a leading brokerage firm, has indicated a preference for various sectors including banks, industrial, real estate, power, autos, pharma, OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies), gas, and capital markets. In a client-focused advisory, the firm recommends the accumulation of specific stocks such as Infosys, Axis Bank, GAIL, Adani Ports, JSW Steel, Grasim, Bajaj Finserv, InfoEdge, and Pidilite throughout 2024.
In line with this trajectory, global broking firm Jefferies, foreseeing the Nifty index reaching new peaks in 2024, expresses a particular fondness for domestic cyclicals, particularly in sectors like banks, power, telecom, industrial, and property. These sectors, according to Jefferies, hold potential for significant growth and development in the forthcoming year.
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